Arab Spring - there was no Arab Spring - ISIS only

Alfred Nobel's invention

The Norwegian Nobel Peace prize committee did it again. Instead of honoring solid achievements the Norwegian Noble committee is honoring a would be promise as they have done so many times before, I think the whole thing turned bad when Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho were nominated 1973 and they stayed bad, Alfred Nobel is surely turning in his grave since then as the man saw the dangers with his inventions, among them the dynamite and wanted that his legacy would be a peaceful progress for the world. Every nomination in later year has come out ridiculous and the one to Barack Obama perhaps the worst as the man has done nothing he promised to do. That man, a representative for the foremost super-power on earth and de facto responsible for not killing off humanity, by any means, stopping global warming and peace-keeping.

The Tunisian "gang of four"

Press and media is still talking about an Arab Spring while winter and darkness is owning the rest of the Arab nations. There is possibly only 1 and it should be called the Tunisian Spring albeit still a very fragile one. There were attempts but they all failed, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. The "solid" Arab nations like Saudi Arabia, the united Arab Emirates, Kuwait they don't want any revolutions or "spring" movements and there are 2 things they are fighting for, avoid Shia Muslim influence in the region also fighting it at home and to avoid any human rights and woman liberty movements to progress within own borders.

Homs in ruins

The "spring" movement in Syria turned into a civil war and many are blaming Bashar al Assad, with the US taking a lead role. At the same time the support for anti Assad insurgents opened up the door, inviting all sorts of vermin to enter, either to fight Assad or just to claim now unprotected territories, like in the case with ISIS. Some anti Assad insurgents are fighting shoulder on shoulder with Al Qaeda, one example is the one from Homs.

Saudi meets with Syria insurgents

There are conferences, many conferences on how to solve the Syrian crisis, some initiated by the west with the US at the helm, others by the Arabs themselves with Saudi Arabia as the most prominent voice. No matter conference the most important message from any of those is that Assad has to go while reality speaks for that ISIS has to go first. There has been progress in Homs in favor of the Assad regime and the common people living there, a truce ousting the insurgents including Al Qaeda, an insurgency by some few, 2000 insurgents imposing horrors over the civilian population, once around 1 million. Ordinary people are happy praising their new situation, ready to start rebuild their life's and to restart their businesses. Hopefully and shortly, this will happen in all major cities of Syria outside the control of ISIS, a good start for a future Syria.

Edogan - evil or not?

The best the west could do is to turn all so called "moderate" insurgents away from Assad and towards fighting ISIS. By doing so there would be nothing for Russia to bomb except ISIS. It is of course a little bit tricky considering Al Nusra and Turkey as it would mean putting Turkey under pressure using the Turkmen" forces to go against ISIS instead of Assad but it should be doable. Turkey is nothing but an ambivalent nation with ambitions. Turkey is neither Europe nor the Middle East and it doesn't want to be complete on either side as it still dream about the Ottoman empire, being a super-power.

Vladimir - a jack of all trades

Coming to an end with ISIS, possibilities for peaceful and democratic Syria will open up but this possibility will never arrive as long as ISIS remains a force in the region. Removing ISIS must be priority #1 for any coalition and when I say coalition it does not contain insurgents of any kind. Insurgents should participate in the war against ISIS but without mandate and demands. Removing Assad is not an option as it surely will create another Libya out of Syria and remember, the nation closest to Assad is Russia, emerging as a super-power again like Phoenix bird from the ashes. Russia is not Putin only as the majority of the Russian people supports him and the way Russia is threading along, with or without economic sanctions because of Ukraine and Crimea.

Bashar - a pensive and good regent

Post ISIS, the nations have to come together agreeing upon democratic elections in Syria. Bashar al Assad must remain as a political player in this scenario unless he elects to step down himself. With Assad as a political player for a presidency or prime minister role, nations have to prepare also for dividing Syria into 2 or more independent nations.

Deutschland über alles

Seeing European nations scrumming for Syria the situation becomes a little more worrisome, France for revenge, Britain for fears and lately Germany with non-aggression inscribed in it's post-war constitution. Germany is sending 7-8 Tornado bomber/fighters and 1200 troops said to function as advisers for those that actively are fighting ISIS but also to train anti Assad insurgents. That rings my warning bell. Something must be wrong with the coalition thinking when the press phrases the German intent this way.

Remember, ISIS has to go before anything else. All anti Assad fighting has to cease completely. Coalition has to build trust in insurgents and root all insurgency out that is in Syria for their own cause. Russia is doing it, please follow Russia for now, then when completed invite (not bring) Russia to a conference engineering Syria's future.

#Syria #ISIS #Turkey #Putin #Russia #Sweden #daesh #erdogan #merkel #Cameron #hollande